Ixesha lesiseko soyilo, ubomi benkonzo yoyilo, ixesha lokubuya - ngaba uyahlula ngokucacileyo?

Ixesha lesiseko soyilo, ubomi benkonzo yoyilo, kunye nexesha lokubuya ziingqikelelo eziphindwe kathathu ezihlala zidibana neenjineli zezakhiwo.Nangona uMgangatho oManyeneyo woKuthembakala koYilo lweZakhiwo zobuNjineli
"Imigangatho" (ebizwa ngokuba "yiMigangatho") Isahluko sesi-2 "Imiqathango" idwelisa iinkcazo zexesha lokubhekisela koyilo kunye nobomi benkonzo yoyilo, kodwa yintoni umehluko phakathi kwabo, kuqikelelwa ukuba abantu abaninzi basadidekile.

1. Ixesha lokubuya
Ngaphambi kokuba singene kwingxoxo, makhe sihlole “ixesha lokubuya”.Kwinqaku lethu elidlulileyo, kanye kwiminyaka engama-50 = kanye kwiminyaka engama-50?——Njengoko kukhankanyiwe kwingqiqo yesine eqhelekileyo yesantya somoya ekufuneka iinjineli zolwakhiwo zisazi, ixesha lokubuya komthwalo libhekisa “kumndilili wexesha phakathi kokwenzeka okanye ukwenzeka kwesiganeko”, kunye nexesha lokubuya elilinganiswa “ngeminyaka” kunye nokugqithwa komthwalo ngonyaka Amathuba anokuchasana ngokomlinganiselo.Umzekelo, kwimithwalo yomoya kunye nexesha lokubuya leminyaka engama-50, ukugqithiswa kwamathuba onyaka yi-2%;kwimithwalo yomoya kunye nexesha lokubuya le-100 leminyaka, ukugqithiswa konyaka okunokwenzeka yi-1%.

Kumthwalo womoya okunokwenzeka okugqithileyo ngonyaka yi-p, ukuba nokwenzeka kokungagqithi kwisantya somoya kunyaka othile yi-1-p, kwaye ukuba nokwenzeka kokungagqithi kwisantya somoya kwiminyaka eyi-N yi (1-p) ukuya kumandla we-Nth. .Ke ngoko, amathuba angaphaya esantya somoya kwiminyaka eyi-N anokubalwa ngale fomula ilandelayo:

Ngokwale fomula: kumthwalo womoya kwisithuba seminyaka engama-50 yokubuya, amathuba onyaka agqithileyo yip=2%, kwaye okunokwenzeka okugqithileyo kwiminyaka engama-50 kukuba:

I-100-year Transcendence Probability inyuka ukuya kuthi ga:

Kwaye ithuba lokudlula kwiminyaka engama-200 liya kufikelela:

2. Ixesha lokuyila isiseko
Ukusuka kulo mzekelo ungasentla, sinokufumanisa ukuba kwimithwalo eguquguqukayo, akunantsingiselo ukukhankanya kuphela ukugqithiswa kwamathuba ngaphandle kokukhankanya ubude bexesha elihambelanayo.Emva kwakho konke, abantu baya kufa ngexesha elide, amathuba okugqithisa imithwalo eguquguqukayo iya kuba kufuphi ne-100%, kwaye izakhiwo ziya kudilika (ngaphandle kokuba zidilizwe ngaphambi kokuwa).Ngoko ke, ukudibanisa umgangatho wokulinganisa, kuyimfuneko ukucacisa umlinganiselo wexesha elidibeneyo njengeparamitha yexesha lamaxabiso ahlukeneyo omthwalo.Eli xesha lokulinganisa "lixesha lesalathiso soyilo".

ISiqendu 3.1.3 se-“Code for Loading of Buildings Structures” simisela ukuba “isithuba sesalathiso soyilo seminyaka engama-50 siya kwamkelwa xa kumiselwa ixabiso elimele imithwalo eguquguqukayo.”Eli lilungiselelo elisisinyanzelo.Isizathu sokuba kunyanzelekile ukuba "akukho mgaqo, akukho sangqa sesikwere", ngaphandle kokubeka isiseko sexesha, akunantsingiselo ukuxoxa ngamathuba okugqithisa umthwalo kunye nesalathisi sokuthembeka (ithuba lokungaphumeleli) kwesakhiwo. .